Fire Flames ATS Week 11

Another week is upon us. Last week I was 2-2 with mortal locks. Clearly it all went wrong when I picked 4 mortals as opposed to the usual 3. Well, we’re back to the basics now and ready to roll. And now a short phrase to describe this weeks games: “Without ash to rise from, a Phoenix would only be a bird getting up.”

Red will be “mortal locks”
Orange is “confident enough to publicly shame myself if I’m wrong”
Blue is “Still making more money betting this way than my investor gets me”
Purple is “Picks had to be made dude, don’t blame me, just give me credit if I’m right”

Tampa +7.5 v Washington

Hey nice to see you again, yes I am still a hater of the skins. Couldn’t care less about the team name, I just don’t believe in RGIII or their defense at all. I went to school in Tampa for a year so this pick is for y’all. Go Bucs.

Denver -10 v St Louis

Just like last week this is yet another regular season garbage game for Manning to pad his stats so he can break records. Normally that wouldn’t be my tone with the Rams, but alas, now that Shaun Hill is the starting QB and Austin Davis has been tossed aside like scrap metal I can’t stand by their side. Go ahead Peyton; this is your time. Just remember the deal, you get regular season glory, but the multiple Super Bowl rings are reserved for QBs with ice in their veins like TB12.

San Diego -10.5 v Oakland

Will we see the Phil Rivers from the first third of the season or his Eli impersonation from week 9? Every fiber of me wants to say it’ll be the potential MVP but Oakland did play them tough last time. Ah, screw it. Coming off a bye the Chargers will rip the Raiders arms off like a wookie.

Pittsburgh -6.5 v Tennessee

Well that was a major fluke last week (albeit one we should have seen coming with the Steelers only being favored by 6 against the inept Jets.) New week, new outlook. Tennessee is still trash. I’m not even high on Bishop Sankey anymore. The whole team is sad. Pittsburgh will 100% recover from their turnover woes and right those wrongs. I like Bell to rush for 130 yards and a TD.

Patriots +2.5 v Indianapolis

Both teams are coming off a bye. Both teams are putting up very enjoyable offensive numbers. Both teams have key defensive soft spots. No wonder the total points is set at a steep 58.5. I’ll keep this simple. When Vegas zigs, I zag. Smart money says to go with the over and the Colts. So what’s the clear answer? Patriots and the under. E-Z Mon-Ay.

Houston +3.5 v Cleveland

So uh, um, Cleveland has been awesome. I absolutely did not expect to say that in 2014 without Manziel starting. And now I think I’m about to purchase my ticket for the Browns Bandwagon…so now is a good time to evade the mush by going with Houston. Yeah I haven’t forgotten about this Arian Foster fella. As great as the Browns have been recently you can’t overlook their porous run D. Right now Foster is speculated to be a game time decision but even if he can’t go Alfred Blue ought to plug in nicely.

Seattle +2 v Kansas City

This smells like a trap game, but now I’m second-guessing myself. I’m like a hunting dog that lost the scent and now is frantically sprinting in one direction just hoping I’m right so my owner lets me sit in the front seat on the way back to the house. Moving on, Kam Chancellor is back! This spells bad news for the rest of the league. Unfortunately I don’t see him making any impactful plays this game. Lynch has been the hot hand but I also don’t see him filling the stat sheet with crazy numbers like last week. This will be low scoring (under 42) and without a doubt decided by a Steve Hauschka field goal. Book it.

Minnesota +3.5 v Chicago

The Bears have been so bad over the last two weeks that I’m even blaming them for me getting sick. It has honestly been hard to tell which faction of their team looked worse, their offense or defense. In any event, that is exactly why you might roll with the Bears this week. Minnesota is a better team than most will give them credit for but at some point the Bears will start to play with the talent we know they have, right? Wrong. The team has turned on Marc Trestman. This will be a very long season for the Bears if Trestman remains at the helm.

Green Bay -6.5 v Philadelphia

Numbers. Numbers, numbers, numbers. This game has me salivating with the potential points that will be thrown around. Rodgers is playing as good as anyone in the world right now and the Sanchize looked great in his full game debut. Both teams are stacked with offensive talents. Unlike the Pats Colts game this will be a high scoring bill that lives up to its label. In the end, Rodgers will be too much for Philly to handle and the over (55.5) will be succulent.

Arizona -1 v Detroit

The Cards are undefeated at home (5-0) and Stafford has been shaky for the Lions to say the least. Even without Carson Palmer leading the Cards, the home crowd and defense may be enough to derail the Lions. They are one of the top three teams in forcing turnovers and that will be their bread and butter. Drew Stanton just needs to do his part, make smart quick passes, not turn the ball over, and manage the clock and they will be a shoe in.

Cincinnati +7.5 v New Orleans

The Saints don’t lose at home…except for last week, but screw that. Moneyline Saints is an easy winner, but that’s not the name of the game here. Even with Gio still sitting out with the hip issue, Jeremy Hill should come out the gates hot (as long as we don’t have a repeat of last week’s miserable play calling) and burn em. Cinnci will do all they can to hang around and stir the pot. In the end the Saints will prevail but the Bengals will 2000% cover 7.5.

Atlanta -1 v Carolina

Hahahah the NFC South is still imploding. This is terrific fun to watch all four teams piss all over themselves only to let the Saints take the division by default. Atlanta has gouged me with their no defense approach far too often so why not let the trend continue. Falcons by a TD. Also, good tid-bit here, Cam is clearly playing through an injury and unable to make any electric plays like he should be able to so even with Atlanta’s three man defense I think they can hold Carolina to below 20 and grab a W.

NYG +4.5 v San Fran

The Niners continue to be frauds in the NFL. Also did people just outright forget how good Jennings was before the injury? He should have a time share with Williams but that combo could cause major problems. You also cannot look at ODB’s last three games and not be super impressed. Clearly this dude has hands. He also has great chemistry with Eli and now Patrick Willis is done for the season too? Hurry and jump on this before the line moves! Next stop, the Trump Tower.