I was going to save the Red Sox pitcher prediction report until just before the start of the season, but seeing as there’s so very little going on this week in Massachusetts sports, what the heck. It’s not like I’m excited for UMass basketball (they’re pretty good, I guess, but oh so boring). Rooting for the Celtics to lose has become too tedious to even watch for more than 10 mins at a time. And do I really need to write another love song to Bill Belichick during NFL free agency (I don’t, but I will write one soon. Bank on that).
So it’s back to spring training and the defending World Champion Boston Red Sox. If you want to read my thoughts on how their lineup will perform in comparison to last year, they are right here for your perusal and lamination.
Same setup as last week. We’ll go pitcher by pitcher, from most important on down.
1. Jon Lester – UP.
Lester is easily the most important pitcher on this staff because he’s the ace. I realize this is not groundbreaking news, but teams don’t generally win with frequency unless they have a pitcher at the top of the rotation they can count on. Roger Clemens was the first guy I ever heard referred to as a “stopper”, but I have to imagine that having a guy like that is huge from a mental perspective. For a team to know that no matter how bad things get, when we get around to Lester they will improve? That’s a giant bit of mental peace.
Lester has never seemed like a guy too focused on his contract (at least publicly, and that’s all I can ask), but it’s up after this year and I would bet you a dollar he’s aware of that fact. I don’t think he’ll be at the dominant levels he was in the playoffs, but I think he’ll improve on last year’s 15-8 1.29 / 3.75.
2. Clay Buchholz – DOWN
I’ve never bought into Buch, even during last year’s 11-0 start. I think he’s a talented pitcher without some of the work ethic that it takes to be a level above where he’s always been. And I hate to keep bringing money up (I really don’t, but I know most people hate reading it), but he’s under club control through 2017. It’s conceivable he’s not as motivated to pitch through pain and/or recover as quickly as possible.
Having said that, obviously the talent is there. 12-1 1.02 / 1.74 isn’t happening again, but if he can remain reasonably healthy I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he has numbers similar to Lester in 2013.
3. John Lackey – DOWN
TBone Kline once told me, during the height of his “Meet the Parents” fame, that Ben Stiller was a terrible, unfunny actor. I laughed him off and went back to quoting the movie. Turns out that, with the exception of “Greenberg”, I completely agree with him.
I tell you that to tell you this: my “Meet the Parents moment” with TBone was last year around this time when I told him John Lackey was the key to the Red Sox playoff hopes, and I expected him to eat innings, save the bullpen, win some games, and generally be a good fellow.
I don’t think the big man is quite as good this year, but I think he’s still an ideal #3 or #4 pitcher, and an excellent guy to have around.
4. Koji Uehara – DOWN
Last year’s playoffs MVP (bullcrap, I call, on anyone who suggests someone else) can’t possibly be as unhittable as he was last season, right? He was flat out Mariano Rivera in his prime as the Sox mowed through Tampa, Detroit, and St Louis, and I say that without the slightest bit of hyperbole.
The down prediction is only because I’m going to need to see another few months of that kind of dominance (and health) before I start predicting a Satchel Paige – like late career performance out of Koji.
5. Felix Doubront – UP
Way up. This is my guy this year. I don’t know that he’s actually the 5th most important guy on the staff right now, but I think he will be at least that by season end. I think the 11 win total from last year becomes 15, I think the ERA and WHIP both drop fairly dramatically, and I think he becomes one of the favorite players at the Fens.
6. Edward Mujica – DOWN
Ben Cherington finally figured out the bullpen in Boston, and I love him more for that than for anything else he’s done. I can honestly say that last year was the first in my lifetime that I felt comfortable with a lead as a Red Sox fan. We’ve gone through Lee Smith, Heathcliff Slocumb, Jeff Reardon, Bob Stanley, Calvin Schiraldi, Tim Wakefield, even Jonathan Papelbon – these guys are freaking heart attack pitchers (and that list could have gone on for about 130 more names). Most were often unsuccessful, and even when they weren’t, it was excruciating. Not last year.
Whoever is the setup guy for Uehara is easily one of the most important guys on this team. I think it’ll stay Mujica, and I think he’ll have a good season, he just won’t save 37 games again.
7. Brandon Workman – UP
Like Doubront, Workman is a guy I’m looking for big things from this year. With Workman it’s more of a hope than an expectation, though. And what a hope it is.
If John Farrell finds himself with an above average #6 starter who has also proven to be dynamite out of the bullpen? If Ben Cherington finds himself with an up and coming 25 year old pitcher who has proven he can get it done in the playoffs, and has less than 1 year of accumulated MLB service time? Look the f out.
8. Junichi Tazawa / Craig Breslow / Andrew Miller – DOWN
Such is how it goes with journeymen middle / late relievers. I don’t expect all of them to decline from last year, but I expect to see some turnover. Good thing for Sox fans, Benevolent Ben Cherington has stocked the pen like a trout farm, and there are plenty of guys like Burke Badenhop, Rubby De La Rosa, Anthony Ranaudo, and Drake Britton ready to step in if need be.
9. Jake Peavy – DOWN
Peavy had a very good season, statistically speaking. 12-5 is a good record (albeit in a too small sample size), and no one is going to complain about a 1.15 WHIP or .238 Batting Average Against. I don’t see those numbers continuing, and I expect at least 1 or 2 stints on the DL.
10. Chris Capuano – DOWN
Hometown pride, baby. I’ve played against Capuano at various points during my less than illustrious baseball career, the last time being while he was rehabbing an injury at Duke and I was swan-songing in an adult league. I’m rooting for him, but I think this might be his last cup of coffee.
But hey – I’ve been very wrong on Capuano before. Namely every time I attempted to hit his curveball (or fastball or change up or eefus or whatever).
Thank you for reading.