Rematches and revenge. Those are the themes of the 2015 Final Four. The first Final Four game gave Michigan State a chance to avenge an early season loss to Duke, a Spartan team that had come so far in overcoming their early season struggles to make the Final Four. But just like that November game, the Duke offense was too much for Michigan State to handle. Duke put up 81 points while only making two three pointers. The Blue Devils carved up the Spartans’ defense, shooting 60% on two pointers and getting to the line an astounding 37 times. After a 14-6 start by the underdog, Duke made a run to take the lead and never looked back, leaving little doubt they would advance. Regardless of who won the second game, Duke would be looking at a much tougher test in the championship game.
That nightcap went to the Badgers, who as much as they didn’t want to admit it, had to have wanted a chance at Kentucky after the way the Wildcats ended their run last year. Kentucky showed glimpses of the team that had been undefeated up until late last night, but they never looked in control. The one thing that stood out was Kentucky’s lack of rebounding. It wasn’t a total surprise considering what we had seen from the Wildcats so far in the tournament. I just can’t see how a team with that much size and talent can consistently allow teams to out-rebound them that have nowhere near the same level of bigs.
Part of that was Frank Kaminsky, who was his usual dominant self, going for 20 and 10 against an NBA front line. Kaminsky’s teammates had some success themselves. The Badgers were even able to convert almost 50% of their shots even though they had a stretch for nearly half the second half where they didn’t make one field goal. It just shows how good the Badger offense was the rest of the game. Wisconsin’s versatility was huge on this front. Having five guys who are able to shoot pretty well and also drive was huge for Wisconsin, particularly when Kaminsky dragged Willie Cauley-Stein or Karl Anthony Towns away from the hoop.
In the end, final minute execution was the difference. Whether it was due to raw experience, or these Badger players having played much more time together, Wisconsin was getting much better shots in the closing minutes.
Now the Badgers will get a second rematch, this time against a Duke team that handed it a rare Kohl Center loss on December 3rd. While the Badgers have some NBA talent of their own, they will still be looked at as underdogs in that sense. But Duke’s NBA talent is different from that of Kentucky’s, which makes this an exciting matchup in a different way. While Kentucky had impressive big guys and a lock down defense, the Blue Devils trot out an impressive array of prospects 1-5 who can fill it up on the offensive end but don’t have the defensive clout of Kentucky, save for Justice Winslow. Some of it was last minute free-throws, but Wisconsin was able to put up over 70 points against one of the, if not the, best defenses in the country so scoring shouldn’t be an issue against the Blue Devils.
Stopping them on the other hand will be a lot tougher of a task than against Kentucky. The Blue Devils shot 65% and 7-12 from deep at the Kohl Center in their win over Wisconsin earlier in the year. I think that actually bodes well for Wisconsin. The Badgers hung with Duke on the glass, got out-shot by 25% and still only lost by 10. Even on their worst defensive day, it is highly unlikely that Duke will shoot 65% again. Sam Dekker was limited early in the year and has been much more aggressive in the tournament. I see this as a high-scoring game with the two main player of the year candidates (Jahlil Okafor and Frank Kaminsky) trading huge games. Just like the end of the Wisconsin-Kentucky game, last minute execution will be the difference. The Badgers experience playing together and ability to stay cool under pressure will result in just enough buckets to get the job done. In their first championship game appearance in nearly 75 years, Bucky cuts down the nets, and it takes weeks to fully clean up State Street in Madison from Monday night’s aftermath.
As I write this Kentucky and Virginia are two of this season’s six remaining unbeaten college basketball teams. Both are having historically good, statistically great seasons. They won’t play in the regular but an eventual collision in the NCAA Tourney is of course possible. The Wildcats are, with good reason, the talk of college basketball this year. Every other team, including third-ranked Virginia, appears to be a national title afterthought.
However, as a lark and to pass the time until the day that they get to write about Kentucky’s predestined national championship, sportswriters are entertaining themselves trying to find a team that could perhaps, maybe, possibly, if-everything-in-the-universe-lined-up-correctly, derail Kentucky’s championship express train. Kansas couldn’t do it. Texas either. Blueblood North Carolina wasn’t up to the challenge and neither was red-blooded Louisville. Could Virginia be one of the very few teams that might give Kentucky more than a brief test? I graduated from UVA and was a hoops-addled student there during the Jeff Lamp/Ralph Sampson-fueled golden era of Virginia basketball. I have lived in Lexington, Kentucky for the past 22 years and have been here to witness UK win three of its eight basketball titles. I don’t know him personally but Kentucky head coach John Calipari lives less than a mile from me. I think my perspective on a prospective UK-UVA matchup is unrivaled.
Kentucky, with its eight championships, is basketball royalty. Virginia historically has been a pauper but for the period when it beat, ironically, Kentucky to win the Ralph Sampson lottery. Sadly, like many who find themselves suddenly rich, Virginia squandered its fortune and spent most of the past twenty years in various states of destitution until last year claiming the ACC regular season and tournament titles, plus a #1 seed in the national tournament. Virginia fans are hoping that the school has this time made a solid long-term investment in the form of head coach Tony Bennett and that it will pay off in regular tournament appearances and a permanent move into basketball’s upper echelon.
Many basketball observers have opined that this Kentucky team could be the greatest ever. Such an accomplishment would place them alongside the 1976 Indiana Hoosiers, college basketball’s last undefeated team and, because of the restrictive shorts of that era, a squad that these Wildcats likely would beat by 40. Such hyperbole is not unusual for Calipari’s Kentucky teams. The combination of his recruiting acumen and Kentucky’s storied history has turned UK into an NBA incubator program. Like legendary UK coach Adolph Rupp 65 years ago, Calipari’s program has reached the point where it recruits itself. For any coach in any sport, Calipari’s position is an enviable one.
That this year’s Kentucky team is so loaded is not the result of Calipari’s clever stockpiling of talent but rather of a malfunction on his NBA assembly line. Willie Cauley-Stein, Alex Poythress, and twins Aaron and Andrew Harrison haven’t developed at the speed called for in Calipari’s production schematic. In an era where high profile players must “eat” to burnish their NBA credentials, Calipari found himself dangerously short of food (aka available minutes). To remedy this he came up with a unique platoon system where 10 players (9 now that Poythress is lost for the season) get relatively equal minutes and there is no distinction between what Cal painstakingly refers to as his “first” and “second” platoons. That he has gotten his highly-touted players to accept reduced minutes in pursuit of historical greatness may be his greatest coaching achievement.
If Kentucky is an assemblage of incredible individual talent, what then is Virginia? It’s not Kentucky, that’s for sure. Kentucky runs talent, Virginia runs a system. That is not to say that Virginia’s players aren’t talented. They are, but they are less heralded and their professional prospects are far less certain. Virginia tried for years to land Kentucky-type talent but having to recruit against league heavyweights Duke, North Carolina, and other occasionally-great ACC schools was too difficult for a team seemingly always playing for next year. Six years ago Virginia determined that its best chance for prolonged success lay in the system approach. The Wahoos hired Washington State head coach Tony Bennett, the son of legendary coach Dick Bennett, creator of college basketball’s most perplexing puzzle, the Pack Line defense. Tony Bennett brought the Pack Line to Virginia and the results have been nothing short of astonishing. Virginia has improved every year under Bennett’s tutelage, culminating in last season’s school-record-tying 30 victories and the program’s first ACC Tournament championship since 1976. Bennett and Virginia have accomplished all of this despite having exactly zero McDonald’s All-Americans and only a few players with NBA talent. The system is the foundation for Virginia’s success. When executed correctly, the Pack Line and its focus on help defense covers up the shortcomings Virginia’s players may have against taller, faster, and more athletic opponents.
Now that Kentucky has dispatched all the teams on its nonconference schedule Virginia and Duke are about the only teams writers have left to offer up as possible spoilers. Could Virginia’s system neutralize Kentucky’s talent advantage? The easy answer is no. Players make plays and the Wildcats have more players than anyone. Kentucky’s guys would blow holes in Virginia’s D while locking down the Cavaliers defensively because it is the Wildcats’ defense that is terrifying and terrorizing opponents this year. Superior talent wins the day, right? Well, over the past year Virginia has posted a 33-3 record and throttled teams with far more talent, but could they beat what is being touted as one of college basketball’s greatest-ever lineups? The matchup is more interesting than you might think.
Ken Pomeroy calculates pace-adjusted stats that give interested parties the means to compare teams across different playing styles. Applying Pomeroy’s methodology to the stats shows that Virginia and Kentucky have remarkably similar defensive and offensive profiles. Kentucky is harder to score on than Virginia, but not by much. The statistics bear this out. UK and UVA rank first and second nationally in scoring defense, allowing 47.8 and 48.2 points per game respectively. They also rank first and second in field goal percentage defense. UK’s opponents make just 29.7 % of their field goal attempts, Virginia’s opponents make just 32.6%. UVA ranks third in the nation in rebound margin at +14.4, UK ranks ninth at +10.5. Kentucky allows opponents to score 82.1 points per 100 possessions and Virginia allows 84.2. That’s first and third nationally. Louisville is second.
Virginia’s Pack Line D is designed to deny the opposition close-in baskets and second-chance points. The way to beat Virginia is shoot over it. A team that makes its three-point shots will always give Virginia trouble because that’s the shot Virginia concedes in order to defend the paint. That doesn’t mean that Virginia is soft against the three, though. The Cavaliers’ 3-point field goal defense allows opponents a conversion percentage of just 29.2%. With its interior size, Kentucky has not had to lean on the three-pointer this year. The Wildcats rank 182nd (of 345) in three-point field goal attempts per game and 228th in three-point field goal percentage at 32.1 %. Kentucky does have capable shooters in Devin Booker and Tyler Ulis. Booker has made 49% of his 50 attempts and Ulis has made 52% of his small sample size 23 attempts. Aaron Harrison is Kentucky’s most prolific three-point bomber and despite a knack for making the big shot he has been statistically terrible this season, converting just 18 of his 66 attempts (27%). His twin Andrew has attempted a far more modest 28 treys but has found nylon only on 9 of them. Booker appears to be the shooter Virginia would need to be most concerned about.
What about at the other end? Could Virginia overcome UK’s length? On offense, Kentucky ranks fifth at 115.4 points per 100 possessions. Virginia averages 114.8 points per 100 possessions, slotting them right behind Kentucky at 6th. By contrast Louisville, Kentucky’s last opponent and formerly the rest of America’s best spoiler hope, ranks 55th at 106.2 points per 100. Virginia is a better offensive team than Louisville and it’s really not even close, as will become obvious in a minute. Virginia has the backcourt size to match up with Kentucky, running 6’2″, 6’5″, and 6’6″ at the guard spots. There is no team in America that can match Kentucky’s frontcourt size and that would be an issue for Virginia because the Hoos prefer layups to three-pointers. Virginia ranks just 322nd in three-point attempts per game and would need to shoot a ton of them against Kentucky because the Wildcats will not let teams score at the rim. The teams that have tried (Kansas, Texas) have gotten obliterated. Virginia is a marginally better overall shooting team than Kentucky, making 49.3 % of its attempts (20th nationally) to Kentucky’s 47.2 % (51st nationally), and a much better shooting team than Louisville (43.1%, 197th nationally). Virginia guard Justin Anderson, one of the few Virginia players with an NBA future, is torching the nets this season and has hit 61% of his 48 three-point attempts.
Would Kentucky’s height allow its skyscrapers to pass out of the post traps Virginia uses to deny opposing big men easy looks at the hoop? Given that Kentucky normally has at least two guys taller than 6’9″ on the floor at the same time, Virginia won’t be able to double all of Kentucky’s bigs. If the doubled man can pass out of the trap Kentucky’s other big man should have an easy look at the hoop. Virginia will have no answer if the post trap breaks down or if Kentucky’s guards can extend the floor by hitting the three and that’s why I think that Kentucky’s interior height and superior talent ultimately would prove too much for the Wahoos to overcome on a neutral court.
SCACCHoops, a simulation service, ran a simulated game between Kentucky and Virginia 300 times. Kentucky won 167 times and Virginia won 133 times. The average score was Kentucky 60.8, Virginia 59.7. Fewer than five points decided 101 of the games and 12 of the games went into overtime. While these results lend credence to Virginia fans’ belief that the Cavs could hang with the Cats, simulations are just that. I think fans of both schools would love to have the issue settled on Monday night, April 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
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